Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · October 24, 2026 · Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates · Co-main · Bantamweight · UFC Bantamweight Title
Announced pairing as of 2026-10-19; bouts change, so check the card before fight night.
ORCA's read
Merab Dvalishvili comes in with the higher ORCA rating, 86 to Petr Yan's 83 (1st and 2nd of 74 active bantamweights). The widest gap is grappling offence: Merab Dvalishvili grades 90, Petr Yan 67. ORCA's expected-outcomes model has Merab Dvalishvili ahead, 58% to 42%, with a 31% chance the bout ends inside the distance. Merab Dvalishvili is expected to hold more control time, 263 seconds to 16.
Tale of the tape
| Petr Yan | Merab Dvalishvili | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCA rating | 83 | 86 |
| Division rank | 2 of 74 Bantamweight | 1 of 74 Bantamweight |
| UFC record | 12–4 | 14–3 |
| Pro record | 20–5 | 21–5 |
| Last five | W W W W L | L W W W W |
| Graded UFC bouts | 16 | 17 |
| Age | 33 | 35 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'6" |
| Reach | 67" | 68" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Striking offence | 98 | 83 |
| Striking defence | 70 | 93 |
| Grappling offence | 67 | 90 |
| Grappling defence | 88 | 74 |
Expected outcomes
| Petr Yan | Merab Dvalishvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Win | 42% | 58% |
| Win by KO/TKO | 19% | 7% |
| Win by submission | 5% | 3% |
| Win on the cards | 17% | 48% |
| Lands at least one takedown | 23% | 92% |
| Control time (seconds) | 16 | 263 |
| Out-controls the other | 6% | 94% |
Expected share of the fight: at distance 67%, in the clinch 15%, Yan on top 1%, Dvalishvili on top 17%.
Finish chance: 31%.
From ORCA's research model: a measurement of how bouts like this have gone, not a tip. In back-tests 2013-2026 it had the winner ahead in 61.8% of 4,962 bouts.