Nikita Krylov vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · October 24, 2026 · Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates · Light Heavyweight
Announced pairing as of 2026-10-19; bouts change, so check the card before fight night.
ORCA's read
Nikita Krylov comes in with the higher ORCA rating, 70 to Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev's 66 (7th and 12th of 44 active light heavyweights). The widest gap is grappling defence: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev grades 68, Nikita Krylov 44. ORCA's expected-outcomes model has Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev ahead, 71% to 29%, with a 85% chance the bout ends inside the distance.
Tale of the tape
| Nikita Krylov | Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCA rating | 70 | 66 |
| Division rank | 7 of 44 Light Heavyweight | 12 of 44 Light Heavyweight |
| UFC record | 12–10 | 3–0 |
| Pro record | 31–12 | — |
| Last five | L W L L W | W W W |
| Graded UFC bouts | 22 | 3 |
| Age | 34 | 25 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 77" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Striking offence | 96 | 78 |
| Striking defence | 64 | 59 |
| Grappling offence | 94 | 80 |
| Grappling defence | 44 | 68 |
Expected outcomes
| Nikita Krylov | Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win | 29% | 71% |
| Win by KO/TKO | 10% | 32% |
| Win by submission | 9% | 34% |
| Win on the cards | 10% | 5% |
| Lands at least one takedown | 62% | 75% |
| Control time (seconds) | 128 | 115 |
| Out-controls the other | 53% | 47% |
Expected share of the fight: at distance 54%, in the clinch 19%, Krylov on top 11%, Yakhyaev on top 16%.
Finish chance: 85%.
From ORCA's research model: a measurement of how bouts like this have gone, not a tip. In back-tests 2013-2026 it had the winner ahead in 61.8% of 4,962 bouts.