Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · October 24, 2026 · Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates · Lightweight
Announced pairing as of 2026-10-19; bouts change, so check the card before fight night.
ORCA's read
The widest gap is striking offence: Noah Gugnon grades 47, Kody Steele 22. ORCA's expected-outcomes model has Noah Gugnon ahead, 69% to 31%, with a 58% chance the bout ends inside the distance. Noah Gugnon is expected to hold more control time, 130 seconds to 93.
Tale of the tape
| Kody Steele | Noah Gugnon | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCA rating | — | — |
| Division rank | — | — |
| UFC record | 1–1 | 1–0 |
| Pro record | 8–1 | 10–2 |
| Last five | W L | W |
| Graded UFC bouts | 2 | 1 |
| Age | 31 | 26 |
| Height | 5'9" | — |
| Reach | 71" | — |
| Stance | Orthodox | — |
| Striking offence | 22 | 47 |
| Striking defence | 41 | 54 |
| Grappling offence | 62 | 65 |
| Grappling defence | 65 | 60 |
Expected outcomes
| Kody Steele | Noah Gugnon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win | 31% | 69% |
| Win by KO/TKO | 8% | 21% |
| Win by submission | 9% | 20% |
| Win on the cards | 14% | 28% |
| Lands at least one takedown | 51% | 48% |
| Control time (seconds) | 93 | 130 |
| Out-controls the other | 42% | 58% |
Expected share of the fight: at distance 65%, in the clinch 15%, Steele on top 9%, Gugnon on top 12%.
Finish chance: 58%.
From ORCA's research model: a measurement of how bouts like this have gone, not a tip. In back-tests 2013-2026 it had the winner ahead in 61.8% of 4,962 bouts.