Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · October 24, 2026 · Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates · Lightweight
Announced pairing as of 2026-10-19; bouts change, so check the card before fight night.
ORCA's read
Grant Dawson comes in with the higher ORCA rating, 71 to Nurullo Aliev's 65 (7th and 17th of 90 active lightweights). The widest gap is striking offence: Grant Dawson grades 72, Nurullo Aliev 31. ORCA's expected-outcomes model reads it close to even, 52% Dawson to 48% Aliev, with a 37% chance the bout ends inside the distance. Grant Dawson is expected to hold more control time, 345 seconds to 92.
Tale of the tape
| Grant Dawson | Nurullo Aliev | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCA rating | 71 | 65 |
| Division rank | 7 of 90 Lightweight | 17 of 90 Lightweight |
| UFC record | 12–2–1 | 4–0 |
| Pro record | 24–3–1 | 12–0 |
| Last five | W L W W W | W W W W |
| Graded UFC bouts | 15 | 4 |
| Age | 32 | 25 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'10" |
| Reach | 72" | 72" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Striking offence | 72 | 31 |
| Striking defence | 61 | 77 |
| Grappling offence | 97 | 87 |
| Grappling defence | 70 | 76 |
Expected outcomes
| Grant Dawson | Nurullo Aliev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win | 52% | 48% |
| Win by KO/TKO | 6% | 25% |
| Win by submission | 8% | 5% |
| Win on the cards | 39% | 18% |
| Lands at least one takedown | 88% | 34% |
| Control time (seconds) | 345 | 92 |
| Out-controls the other | 79% | 21% |
Expected share of the fight: at distance 47%, in the clinch 15%, Dawson on top 26%, Aliev on top 12%.
Finish chance: 37%.
From ORCA's research model: a measurement of how bouts like this have gone, not a tip. In back-tests 2013-2026 it had the winner ahead in 61.8% of 4,962 bouts.