Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · October 24, 2026 · Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates · Light Heavyweight
Announced pairing as of 2026-10-19; bouts change, so check the card before fight night.
ORCA's read
Dominick Reyes comes in with the higher ORCA rating, 71 to Azamat Murzakanov's 68 (5th and 8th of 44 active light heavyweights). The widest gap is striking offence: Dominick Reyes grades 92, Azamat Murzakanov 73. ORCA's expected-outcomes model reads it close to even, 48% Murzakanov to 52% Reyes, with a 70% chance the bout ends inside the distance.
Tale of the tape
| Azamat Murzakanov | Dominick Reyes | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCA rating | 68 | 71 |
| Division rank | 8 of 44 Light Heavyweight | 5 of 44 Light Heavyweight |
| UFC record | 6–1 | 10–5 |
| Pro record | 16–1 | 16–5 |
| Last five | L W W W W | W L W W W |
| Graded UFC bouts | 7 | 15 |
| Age | 37 | 36 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'4" |
| Reach | 71" | 77" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Striking offence | 73 | 92 |
| Striking defence | 83 | 80 |
| Grappling offence | 33 | 31 |
| Grappling defence | 66 | 67 |
Expected outcomes
| Azamat Murzakanov | Dominick Reyes | |
|---|---|---|
| Win | 48% | 52% |
| Win by KO/TKO | 34% | 30% |
| Win by submission | 2% | 3% |
| Win on the cards | 13% | 18% |
| Lands at least one takedown | 40% | 28% |
| Control time (seconds) | 65 | 48 |
| Out-controls the other | 57% | 43% |
Expected share of the fight: at distance 85%, in the clinch 9%, Murzakanov on top 3%, Reyes on top 3%.
Finish chance: 70%.
From ORCA's research model: a measurement of how bouts like this have gone, not a tip. In back-tests 2013-2026 it had the winner ahead in 61.8% of 4,962 bouts.