Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · October 24, 2026 · Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates · Heavyweight
Announced pairing as of 2026-10-19; bouts change, so check the card before fight night.
ORCA's read
Alexander Volkov comes in with the higher ORCA rating, 76 to Rizvan Kuniev's 62 (4th and 18th of 48 active heavyweights). The widest gap is grappling defence: Rizvan Kuniev grades 77, Alexander Volkov 49. ORCA's expected-outcomes model has Alexander Volkov ahead, 59% to 41%, with a 45% chance the bout ends inside the distance. Rizvan Kuniev is expected to hold more control time, 95 seconds to 40.
Tale of the tape
| Alexander Volkov | Rizvan Kuniev | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCA rating | 76 | 62 |
| Division rank | 4 of 48 Heavyweight | 18 of 48 Heavyweight |
| UFC record | 14–5 | 2–1 |
| Pro record | 40–11 | 14–3–1 |
| Last five | W W L W W | W W L |
| Graded UFC bouts | 19 | 3 |
| Age | 37 | 34 |
| Height | 6'7" | 6'4" |
| Reach | 80" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Striking offence | 98 | 71 |
| Striking defence | 84 | 64 |
| Grappling offence | 40 | 43 |
| Grappling defence | 49 | 77 |
Expected outcomes
| Alexander Volkov | Rizvan Kuniev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win | 59% | 41% |
| Win by KO/TKO | 16% | 25% |
| Win by submission | 3% | 2% |
| Win on the cards | 40% | 14% |
| Lands at least one takedown | 20% | 40% |
| Control time (seconds) | 40 | 95 |
| Out-controls the other | 29% | 71% |
Expected share of the fight: at distance 69%, in the clinch 24%, Volkov on top 2%, Kuniev on top 5%.
Finish chance: 45%.
From ORCA's research model: a measurement of how bouts like this have gone, not a tip. In back-tests 2013-2026 it had the winner ahead in 61.8% of 4,962 bouts.