Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · October 24, 2026 · Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates · Main event · Featherweight · UFC Featherweight Title
Announced pairing as of 2026-10-19; bouts change, so check the card before fight night.
ORCA's read
On ORCA rating, Alexander Volkanovski leads 85 to 81 (1st and 3rd of 79 active featherweights). Grappling defence separates them most, 83 for Alexander Volkanovski against 62 for Movsar Evloev. ORCA's expected-outcomes model reads it close to even, 49% Volkanovski to 51% Evloev, with a 34% chance the bout ends inside the distance. Movsar Evloev is expected to hold more control time, 110 seconds to 60.
Tale of the tape
| Alexander Volkanovski | Movsar Evloev | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCA rating | 85 | 81 |
| Division rank | 1 of 79 Featherweight | 3 of 79 Featherweight |
| UFC record | 15–3 | 10–0 |
| Pro record | 28–4 | 20–0 |
| Last five | W W L L W | W W W W W |
| Graded UFC bouts | 18 | 10 |
| Age | 38 | 32 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'7" |
| Reach | 71" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Striking offence | 98 | 85 |
| Striking defence | 86 | 90 |
| Grappling offence | 68 | 80 |
| Grappling defence | 83 | 62 |
Expected outcomes
| Alexander Volkanovski | Movsar Evloev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win | 49% | 51% |
| Win by KO/TKO | 10% | 20% |
| Win by submission | 2% | 3% |
| Win on the cards | 37% | 28% |
| Lands at least one takedown | 62% | 76% |
| Control time (seconds) | 60 | 110 |
| Out-controls the other | 35% | 65% |
Expected share of the fight: at distance 75%, in the clinch 13%, Volkanovski on top 4%, Evloev on top 8%.
Finish chance: 34%.
From ORCA's research model: a measurement of how bouts like this have gone, not a tip. In back-tests 2013-2026 it had the winner ahead in 61.8% of 4,962 bouts.