Abus Magomedov vs Cam Rowston
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · October 24, 2026 · Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates · Middleweight
Announced pairing as of 2026-10-19; bouts change, so check the card before fight night.
ORCA's read
Abus Magomedov comes in with the higher ORCA rating, 71 to Cam Rowston's 63 (12th and 23rd of 71 active middleweights). The widest gap is striking defence: Abus Magomedov grades 81, Cam Rowston 54. ORCA's expected-outcomes model has Cam Rowston ahead, 58% to 42%, with a 59% chance the bout ends inside the distance.
Tale of the tape
| Abus Magomedov | Cam Rowston | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCA rating | 71 | 63 |
| Division rank | 12 of 71 Middleweight | 23 of 71 Middleweight |
| UFC record | 5–3 | 3–0 |
| Pro record | 29–7–1 | — |
| Last five | W L W W W | W W W |
| Graded UFC bouts | 8 | 3 |
| Age | 36 | 31 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'3" |
| Reach | 78" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Striking offence | 64 | 70 |
| Striking defence | 81 | 54 |
| Grappling offence | 85 | 62 |
| Grappling defence | 73 | 69 |
Expected outcomes
| Abus Magomedov | Cam Rowston | |
|---|---|---|
| Win | 42% | 58% |
| Win by KO/TKO | 12% | 29% |
| Win by submission | 11% | 7% |
| Win on the cards | 19% | 22% |
| Lands at least one takedown | 55% | 40% |
| Control time (seconds) | 98 | 128 |
| Out-controls the other | 43% | 57% |
Expected share of the fight: at distance 64%, in the clinch 12%, Magomedov on top 12%, Rowston on top 12%.
Finish chance: 59%.
From ORCA's research model: a measurement of how bouts like this have gone, not a tip. In back-tests 2013-2026 it had the winner ahead in 61.8% of 4,962 bouts.