Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · October 24, 2026 · Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates · Middleweight
Announced pairing as of 2026-10-19; bouts change, so check the card before fight night.
ORCA's read
Striking offence separates them most, 73 for Jacob Malkoun against 41 for Abubakar Vagaev. ORCA's expected-outcomes model has Jacob Malkoun ahead, 71% to 29%, with a 42% chance the bout ends inside the distance. Jacob Malkoun is expected to hold more control time, 250 seconds to 92.
Tale of the tape
| Abubakar Vagaev | Jacob Malkoun | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCA rating | — | 72 |
| Division rank | — | 9 of 71 Middleweight |
| UFC record | 1–0 | 6–3 |
| Pro record | 25–4 | 10–3 |
| Last five | W | W W W L W |
| Graded UFC bouts | 1 | 9 |
| Age | 33 | 31 |
| Height | — | 5'9" |
| Reach | — | 73" |
| Stance | — | Orthodox |
| Striking offence | 41 | 73 |
| Striking defence | 63 | 65 |
| Grappling offence | 64 | 80 |
| Grappling defence | 51 | 61 |
Expected outcomes
| Abubakar Vagaev | Jacob Malkoun | |
|---|---|---|
| Win | 29% | 71% |
| Win by KO/TKO | 13% | 16% |
| Win by submission | 3% | 9% |
| Win on the cards | 12% | 46% |
| Lands at least one takedown | 51% | 83% |
| Control time (seconds) | 92 | 250 |
| Out-controls the other | 26% | 74% |
Expected share of the fight: at distance 46%, in the clinch 22%, Vagaev on top 8%, Malkoun on top 24%.
Finish chance: 42%.
From ORCA's research model: a measurement of how bouts like this have gone, not a tip. In back-tests 2013-2026 it had the winner ahead in 61.8% of 4,962 bouts.