Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · October 24, 2026 · Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates · Featherweight
Announced pairing as of 2026-10-19; bouts change, so check the card before fight night.
ORCA's read
The widest gap is grappling offence: Aaron Pico grades 71, Losene Keita 35. ORCA's expected-outcomes model has Losene Keita ahead, 54% to 46%, with a 51% chance the bout ends inside the distance. Aaron Pico is expected to hold more control time, 131 seconds to 39.
Tale of the tape
| Aaron Pico | Losene Keita | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCA rating | — | — |
| Division rank | — | — |
| UFC record | 1–1 | 1–1 |
| Pro record | 14–5 | 17–2 |
| Last five | W L | W L |
| Graded UFC bouts | 2 | 2 |
| Age | 30 | 28 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'8" |
| Reach | 70" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Striking offence | 72 | 56 |
| Striking defence | 49 | 78 |
| Grappling offence | 71 | 35 |
| Grappling defence | 72 | 69 |
Expected outcomes
| Aaron Pico | Losene Keita | |
|---|---|---|
| Win | 46% | 54% |
| Win by KO/TKO | 10% | 31% |
| Win by submission | 5% | 6% |
| Win on the cards | 30% | 18% |
| Lands at least one takedown | 68% | 26% |
| Control time (seconds) | 131 | 39 |
| Out-controls the other | 77% | 23% |
Expected share of the fight: at distance 70%, in the clinch 14%, Pico on top 13%, Keita on top 3%.
Finish chance: 51%.
From ORCA's research model: a measurement of how bouts like this have gone, not a tip. In back-tests 2013-2026 it had the winner ahead in 61.8% of 4,962 bouts.